hong bao pic

Many people have offered many different reasons for the unexpected PAP rout of the Opposition. I am no politics expert, but they hardly discussed a glaringly obvious one: The goodies given out to voters.

In the last year or so, the numerous sweeteners given out to or promised Singaporeans include, but are not exclusive, to the following:

  1. The Pioneer Generation Package of $8 billion to help 450,000 people with healthcare
  2. The Silver Support Scheme giving 150,000 elderly quarterly payouts of $300 to $750 from now on, costing $350m in 2016.
  3. A personal income tax rebate of 50 per cent up to $1,000
  4. Premium rebates for 949,000 CPF Home Protection Scheme members, about half getting S$400 or more.
  5. GST vouchers, of which there are various types, raised
  6. HDB Service and Conservancy charges rebates worth $80 million for 80,000 households
  7. Account top-ups for Singaporeans in various education accounts
  8. Full fee waiver for Singaporean students taking national exams
  9. Skills Future credit for over 2 million Singaporeans 25 years old and up, with an initial credit of $500 from 2016
  10. Reduced maid levies, and extending reduction to households with children ages 16 and below from 12 and below. Some 144,500 households will save $720 a year
  11. Reduced childcare centre costs for many parents
  12. About 82,000 civil servants received a $500 Jubilee bonus
  13. Other workers in universities, healthcare and other sectors received SG50 bonuses ranging from $500. Even private sector SG50 payments such as the $1,000 given out by some banks help sentiments

These goodies are either one-time or permanent, already given out or will be rolled out soon, part of or outside the Government Budget. Almost everyone got something, and some a series of payments adding to a very big hong bao.

Some of the sweeteners are similar to those in the 2006 and 2011 election years. But the goodies given out or promised since last year come up to much more.

The important point is that they also add up to a very big reason to thank the PAP-Government at the ballot box. As Deputy Prime Minister and the PAP’s shining star in this election Tharman Shanmugaratnam once wrote in a poem “and happiness is sometimes bought.”

To be sure, not everyone voted from the cash lining their pockets or did so for only that reason or even for that reason. Other factors probably played a part. Among those reported in the media have been:

  1. The feel-good halo hanging over the SG50 celebrations
  2. The effect of Lee Kuan Yew’s passing and/or his legacy
  3. The desire for  different voices in Parliament
  4. The quality of parties and/or candidates in my constituency
  5. How well the Opposition did in parliament in the last four years
  6. How well town councils are managed
  7. The fear that the Opposition will win enough to form the government
  8. The worry about Singapore’s vulnerability as a country

Some will be more salient than other among certain groups. New citizens are assumed to be pro-PAP, for instance. The supposedly more pro-Opposition young voters were much talked about pre-election as a big danger to the PAP, but were quickly forgotten post-election.

Another reason given for the PAP triumph was the policy changes and better implementation of policies since 2011, These were seen as the key grouses that gave the PAP its worse ever electoral showing ever: crowded trains and buses, too many foreigners, high house prices and the small difference between of citizens and permanent residents for subsidies and other perks. If there is a party that can deliver on these issues, it is the PAP. Leading up to 2011, it hid its head in the sand to the issues or kept the eye off the ball in implementation. After that wake-up call, the PAP quickly moved to address these problems. Add policy fixes to the goodies, the contest was probably already determined way before nomination day.

In 2011, many assumed that PAP’s setback signalled the electorate’s irreversible change from one caring more about bread and butter issues to being more concerned about democracy, diversity in parliament and checks and balances.

But the results of this election, which I see as primarily as a vote for the material and the restoration of good-old PAP promise of taking care of basic needs, shows how misconceived the liberal optimists were.